看美國聯儲局議息結果 (2019第4季)

Updated: Jun 5, 2020



議息結果短評 (2019第4季)


2019第4季. 聯儲局減息0.25厘 ,提供子彈給Trump繼續打貿易戰

如我們預期一樣,聯儲局昨日結束兩日議息會議,並宣布減息0.25厘,聯邦基金利率區間降到1.75至2厘,在會後聯儲局局長鮑威爾表示,聯儲局今年兩次降息足以抵禦特朗普與中國進行貿易戰帶來全球上升的風險,而聯儲局今後幾乎看不到需要再採取減息行動,除非這些風險帶來較弱的美國經濟數據。 原文新聞報導 :

In a buck-stops-over-there-now performance, Powell indicated that the Fed’s two rate cuts this year are likely adequate as insurance against the rising global risks posed by Trump’s whipsaw trade negotiations with China, and that going forward the Fed sees little need to move unless those risks materialize in the form of weaker U.S. economic data. “Trade developments have been up and down and then up, I guess, back up perhaps over the course of this interview,” Powell said in a reference to Trump’s sometimes unpredictable trade war with China and, on occasion, other countries. 🔍 在下面附圖為美國15間聯儲局銀行對短期至中期利率的預期利率點陣圖,該點陣圖顯示了各聯儲銀行行長對短期和長期聯邦基金利率的預期,圖上現正顯示趨勢上美國還是會繼續加息周期,當然這種預測只是各聯儲銀行行長的下注預期,並不反應最終結果 。我們相信美國經濟仍然會繼續向好,中期貿易戰如能達成協議,更能移除一大伴腳石。在這前題上,利率現時傾向寬鬆,經濟仍然向好,對股市將極為有利,在更多個股建立上升趨勢及整固完成後,我們應更進取投入市場。

Source: www.federalreserve.govwww.investing.com

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